Every time Underground workers announce a strike, it’s passengers who bear the cost — both in time and money. But what lies behind this endless cycle of industrial action, and why does nobody seem able to stop it?
What’s Happening Right Now
The RMT union has announced six 24-hour strikes across the London Underground, spread between March and May 2025. The official trigger: Transport for London is attempting to introduce a “compressed” four-day working week for drivers on the Bakerloo line — meaning the same contracted hours, but squeezed into longer, fewer shifts.
The union says its members have already voted the plan down and warns that longer shifts pose a genuine fatigue risk to driver safety. TfL insists participation would be entirely voluntary, with no reduction in contracted hours, and that drivers who prefer their current five-day pattern can keep it.
But this dispute doesn’t exist in isolation. Last September, drivers walked out over pay and conditions. Before that, more strikes. The pattern is consistent: every few months, the same scene plays out on the same platforms.
Why These Strikes Keep Happening — The Real Reasons
1. TfL’s Funding Model Is Fundamentally Broken
The London Underground does not operate like the Paris Métro or the Berlin U-Bahn, where central government covers the majority of running costs. TfL is expected to generate most of its own income through fares. That places management under constant pressure to cut costs — and the single largest cost is its workforce.
Every proposal involving shift restructuring, rota changes, or new working arrangements is viewed by unions as an attempt to squeeze budgets at the expense of workers. The result is a near-permanent state of tension between management and staff that periodically erupts into formal industrial action.
2. The Pandemic Left Deep Financial Wounds
Covid-19 devastated TfL’s fare revenues overnight. The government kept the organisation afloat through emergency funding agreements — but attached conditions. TfL was required to modernise operations and reduce its structural costs. Proposals such as the four-day week are not random management ideas. They are the downstream consequence of financial commitments made during the pandemic, now landing on the workforce.
3. Workers Have Legitimate Grievances
Contrary to how these disputes are sometimes framed, Underground drivers are not simply well-paid workers demanding more. The issues being raised — shift fatigue, safety implications of longer working days, unilateral changes to working conditions — are substantive employment concerns. When changes are pushed through without genuine agreement, industrial action becomes the last available lever.
Fares Go Up Every Year — So Where Does The Money Go?
London Underground fares rise almost every January. In January 2025, prices increased by an average of 4.6%. This has happened consistently in recent years, frequently above the general rate of inflation.
Under current rules, fare increases are tied to the RPI (Retail Price Index) figure recorded each July. With RPI running high, tickets have followed suit — and passengers have noticed.
The reasonable question is this: if fares increase every year, why does the service remain unreliable, why do strikes keep happening, and why does infrastructure feel stuck in the past?
The honest answer is that fare revenue is absorbed primarily by three things:
- Day-to-day operating costs — wages, energy, maintenance, and rolling stock
- Debt repayment — TfL carries significant long-term borrowing obligations
- Capital investment — major projects such as the Elizabeth line, which ran billions over budget
This means fare rises do not translate directly into a better experience for the everyday commuter. Much of the money is already spoken for before a single train departs.
Why Won’t The Government Do Something?
This is the question on every commuter’s lips when they are stranded on a platform for the third time in a month.
Westminster and TfL Operate In Separate Lanes
TfL is controlled by the Mayor of London and the Greater London Authority — not by the national government. Ministers at Westminster have no direct authority to intervene in TfL’s labour negotiations or instruct the organisation on how to manage its workforce. When ministers criticise strikes in public, they are largely doing so without the power to act on it.
British Law Protects The Right To Strike
Unlike some European countries, the UK does not have strong legal mechanisms to prohibit strikes in public transport when they are carried out in accordance with the law. The Minimum Service Levels Act 2023 allows certain operators to require minimum staffing during strikes, but its application remains limited in practice and has faced ongoing legal challenge.
Strikes Are A Symptom, Not The Cause
Politicians tend to find it easier to criticise industrial action publicly than to address the structural problem underneath it: TfL has no long-term, sustainable funding settlement from central government. Until that changes, the conditions that produce strikes — overstretched finances, cost-cutting pressure, and a workforce being asked to absorb the consequences — will remain in place.
What Happens Next
Both sides have left the door open to talks. The RMT has said strike action can be avoided if London Underground produces a workable solution before 24 March. TfL says negotiations are continuing.
Passengers are advised to check TfL’s travel updates regularly and to plan alternatives for the announced strike dates — including buses, cycling, and working from home where possible.
If recent history is any guide, a last-minute agreement or deferral remains possible. But the underlying structural tensions that make these disputes inevitable have not been resolved. The next set of strike dates, whenever they come, will not be a surprise.
Strike dates: 24–25 March, 26–27 March, 21–22 April, 23–24 April, 19–20 May, 21–22 May 2025.
